As the most essential method of fixed time , fixed point and quantitative forecasting , numeric weather forecasting has became the primary technical way of the medium - term and short - term forecasting 作為定時(shí)、定點(diǎn)、定量預(yù)報(bào)最根本的方法,數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)已成為制作中、短期天氣預(yù)報(bào)的主要技術(shù)手段。
In chapter 3 , this paper makes qualitative and quantitative forecast on vessel to be supplied and cargo available in the coming 5 years ; a useful combined forecasting model is also presented in chapter 3 再次,本文對(duì)目前我國(guó)沿海內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)力、運(yùn)量情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)并給出了合適的預(yù)測(cè)模型。
The commonly used quantitative forecasting method mainly includes the model of time series and cause - effect model , which need to set up corresponding mathematics model according to the historical materials and to makes prediction of the development trend of the logarithm row 常用的定量預(yù)測(cè)方法主要包括時(shí)間序列模型和因果模型。這些模型都是根據(jù)歷史資料建立相應(yīng)的數(shù)學(xué)模型,對(duì)數(shù)列的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)做出預(yù)測(cè)。
In the study of quantitative forecast models , composition analysis for three different time series are firstly investigated by statistic test methods . the conclusions are as follows : there is no evident tendency for above three series , and evident periodicity exist only in precipitation series 在定量預(yù)測(cè)模型研究中,先對(duì)三個(gè)不同系列進(jìn)行時(shí)間系列的組成分析,結(jié)果表明:三個(gè)系列均無(wú)趨勢(shì)存在,降水量系列有明顯周期存在,但年最高潮位系列無(wú)周期。
On the basis of qualitative analysis , this chapter has carried out quantitative forecast to the amount of chinese monitor markets in 2003 to 2007 years and the speed of growth in next 5 years , and forecasts the structure of monitor own brand and oem market , and has further carried out quantitative forecast to the structure of products , channel , region , vertical market and parallel market 在定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本章對(duì)2003 2007年中國(guó)顯示器市場(chǎng)的總量及未來(lái)5年的增長(zhǎng)速度進(jìn)行了定量預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)顯示器自有品牌和oem市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),進(jìn)一步對(duì)產(chǎn)品、渠道、區(qū)域、垂直市場(chǎng)和平行市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了定量預(yù)測(cè)。
The technical and economic evaluation of thin - type spunbond nonwoven project has mainly finished the following research work : ( 1 ) utilize the theory and method of < marketing > for market investigation , research and forecast , analyze the developing trend and market requirement of the nonwocen abroad and at home , conduct quantitative forecast for raw materials and product price , and explain that during the essential period when liaoyang petrochemical company regulates the structure of industries and product and remodels the main business items , selecting to build up the production device for thin - type spunbond nonwoven is suitable . ( 2 ) introduce techniques of different companies to form different schemes . after analyzing the features of various schemes in the thesis , through building up the target system of four levels and utilize technical comprehensive evaluating way to conduct technical evaluation of four schemes for the thin - type spunbond nonwoven project and get the prior sequence from schemes d , b , a to c . ( 3 ) different technical schemes have various cash circulation amounts , economic evaluation is first based on evaluating and confirming feasibility of each scheme by the single scheme finance , select and use the method of multiple schemes comparison selecting - inutual repelling type multiple schemes optimization , select introducing the scheme of d company technique as the optimum , then conduct undetermined analysis to further test and verify feasibility of schemes 闡明了遼化公司在調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、重塑主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期選擇建設(shè)8000噸年薄型紡粘非織造布生產(chǎn)裝置是適宜的; ( 2 )引進(jìn)不同公司的技術(shù)形成了不同的方案,論文在分析了各方案的特點(diǎn)后,通過(guò)建立四個(gè)層次的指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用技術(shù)綜合評(píng)價(jià)的方法,對(duì)薄型紡粘非織造布項(xiàng)目的四個(gè)方案進(jìn)行技術(shù)評(píng)價(jià),確定了丁方案、乙方案、甲方案到丙方案的優(yōu)先順序; ( 3 )不同的技術(shù)方案有不同的現(xiàn)金流量,經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)首先在單方案財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)確認(rèn)各方案可行的基礎(chǔ)上,選用多方案比選? ?互斥型多方案選優(yōu)的方法,選擇引進(jìn)丁公司技術(shù)的方案最優(yōu),而后,又進(jìn)行了不確定性分析,進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證方案的可行性。
In this paper , the research present situation and progress on the landslide time prediction are systematically summarized , especially , the progress is emphatically discussed about the landslide forecast models ( including quantitative forecast models , qualitative forecast model as well as gmd forecast model and so on ) and the forecast criterions , and the comprehensive information prediction and its specific technology route are proposed 對(duì)滑坡時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)的研究現(xiàn)狀和研究進(jìn)展作了系統(tǒng)地總結(jié),重點(diǎn)探討了滑坡預(yù)報(bào)模型(包括定量預(yù)報(bào)模型、定性預(yù)報(bào)模型以及gmd預(yù)報(bào)模型等) 、預(yù)報(bào)判據(jù)研究方面的進(jìn)展,提出了滑坡綜合信息預(yù)報(bào)的思路及具體的實(shí)施技術(shù)路線。
On basis of this , the article has analysed and forecast the demand of china ' s timber import , by adopting the method which combined quantitative forecast and qualitative forecast and provided my advice on development of timber import transportation routes . the article has taken papua new guinea - zhang jia gang trading line as an example , had a deep study of the method of technology and economy demonstration of timber carriers 通過(guò)對(duì)市場(chǎng)的科學(xué)分析與預(yù)測(cè),確定最優(yōu)船型方案,以獲取最大經(jīng)濟(jì)收益,是擺在航運(yùn)企業(yè)面前的重大課題本文分析了國(guó)際和國(guó)內(nèi)木材市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀,采取定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)未來(lái)我國(guó)原木進(jìn)口需求進(jìn)行了分析和預(yù)測(cè),提出了原木進(jìn)口航線發(fā)展策略
On the basis of qualitative analysis , this chapter carries out quantitative forecast to the amount of chinese monitor markets in 2003 to 2007 years and the speed of growth in the next 5 years , and forecasts the structure of monitor own brand and oem market , and further carries out quantitative forecast to the structure of products , channel , region , vertical market and parallel market 在定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本章對(duì)2003 2007年中國(guó)顯示器市場(chǎng)的總量及未來(lái)5年的增長(zhǎng)速度進(jìn)行了定量預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)顯示器自有品牌和oem市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),進(jìn)一步對(duì)產(chǎn)品、渠道、區(qū)域、垂直市場(chǎng)和平行市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了定量預(yù)測(cè)。
Considering this point and by applying trend surface fitting method and its principles of model optimization , the correspondingly numerical relations between the change of gas content and its spatial distribution in luling coal mine are obtained , based on this result , an accurate , reliable and quantitative forecast of gas in deep stopes and unexploited region can be achieved 結(jié)合趨勢(shì)面擬合及其模型優(yōu)化的原理和方法分析得出了淮北礦業(yè)集團(tuán)公司蘆嶺煤礦井田范圍內(nèi)瓦斯含量的變化及分布與其位置坐標(biāo)的對(duì)應(yīng)數(shù)值關(guān)系,依據(jù)該數(shù)值關(guān)系可對(duì)礦井深部采場(chǎng)和未開(kāi)采區(qū)域?qū)嵤┍容^準(zhǔn)確、可靠的定量瓦斯預(yù)測(cè)。